Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 168.796224 197.811575 231.677973 274.469740 327.583849 391.986837 476.977179
2025-11-09 128.866137 162.921569 206.735087 268.364045 354.687891 474.254049 657.863215
2025-11-16 105.651028 140.740827 189.076558 262.585645 375.414059 549.040600 851.639460
2025-11-23 89.863905 124.545776 174.891710 256.319757 390.956025 617.366049 1058.564733
2025-11-30 83.926744 120.886307 177.381921 274.608881 448.258035 769.421381 1478.736541
2025-12-07 76.107316 112.945279 171.579040 277.624985 479.405029 883.938498 1882.215462
2025-12-14 70.392238 107.349454 168.405906 284.102483 518.036279 1025.926857 2431.063698
2025-12-21 64.492296 100.595476 162.124828 283.420580 541.926701 1144.403644 2997.626335
2025-12-28 62.403322 99.916404 166.215621 303.203688 614.407711 1406.870381 4206.767284
2026-01-04 59.848636 98.055931 167.795193 318.132171 680.385381 1683.950150 5757.565945
2026-01-11 57.147136 95.576212 167.788988 329.617515 741.621595 1979.440159 7762.495059
2026-01-18 54.128966 92.152517 165.433346 335.374330 789.973423 2262.101990 10147.911142
2026-01-25 50.816784 87.963432 161.277529 336.929898 829.884551 2549.937094 13183.619349
2026-02-01 47.084644 82.598724 154.050694 329.862252 843.292279 2752.241691 16166.531217
2026-02-08 43.751233 77.695765 147.208793 322.536316 854.118275 2955.290171 19759.044807
2026-02-15 40.727796 73.127142 140.545125 314.470034 860.384767 3146.475666 23921.951985
2026-02-22 40.303341 73.790415 145.485829 338.129684 982.490985 3992.170928 39427.980763
2026-03-01 38.529782 71.473610 143.377561 342.041726 1036.694208 4547.388097 55181.083124
2026-03-08 37.179642 69.923928 142.859278 350.451071 1112.097325 5315.629902 82780.156562
2026-03-15 35.391969 67.271905 139.409618 349.565243 1150.695360 5902.467139 114721.991252
2026-03-22 35.171088 68.022220 144.308578 375.322018 1314.956524 7639.595592 229196.572733
2026-03-29 34.579746 67.886740 146.990535 394.833859 1463.455301 9563.633794 460213.491035
2026-04-05 33.782884 67.208318 148.201713 409.888233 1600.455993 11714.994266 958254.409416